Various special-interest groups have declared their favored government agency should be protected from budget cuts, and some legislators have said they oppose any spending cuts.

The numbers released by the State Board of Equalization this week provided a much-needed reality check. The combination of the COVID-19 shutdown and plummeting oil prices means state tax collections will be much lower – not just for a few months, but potentially for the next two years.

Current state budget year spending was originally set at $8.13 billion and has been maintained only by drawing down $459 million from savings.

That leaves $534 million in state savings. But even if lawmakers use every dime of savings in the 2021 state budget, they will still have to reduce spending by 7.5%. And in the 2022 state budget year, they will have to cut spending another 8.2% based on current projections.

The $1.6 billion in federal COVID-19 funding may relieve some financial stress, but there are associated restrictions that complicate those calculations.

For some, the knee-jerk response to any government shortfall is to call for tax increases, as we saw repeatedly from 2015 to 2018. A better response would be to reorganize government through consolidation, modernization that reduces expenses, and deregulation that frees private enterprise while lowering taxpayer costs.

Tax increases will only add to the economic destruction and further slow Oklahoma’s recovery, which is already expected to be a multi-year process. Any tax increases will be large and hit all citizens since additional taxes on favored targets like Big Oil or the rich will not generate much when oil futures are in negative territory.

Keep in mind, a “fee” on health care services is already being discussed to fund Medicaid expansion. You read that right: In the middle of a pandemic, our state politicians may increase the cost of your health care treatment.

Even so, calls for additional tax increases will undoubtedly increase from special interests who think government jobs should be exempted from the economic pain experienced by working families. State policymakers should reject those demands.

Officials at the Oklahoma Tax Commission don’t expect Oklahoma to return to pre-COVID-19 levels of employment until the fourth quarter of 2022. Tax increases could push that date out even further.

Unlike COVID-19 hospitalizations, economic recovery is one area where Oklahomans should not want to flatten the curve.

Jonathan Small serves as president of the Oklahoma Council of Public Affairs (www.ocpathink.org).